The new war began with bombing on Monday
evening at 9:26 PM EST. Twenty sites around Raqqa, the northern Syrian
which serves as the capital for the Islamic State, were hit by air strikes from
the U.S., Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates assisted
by Qater.
These strikes included the use of B-1
Bombers, F-16 and F-18 fighter jets, F-22 stealth Raptors, Predator Drones and
Tomahawk Missiles fired from off shore aircraft carriers such as the USS Arleigh
Burke.
The U.S. alone attacked positions in
Eastern Syria held by the al-Qaeda affiliated Khorasan Front from Central Asia
who were using these sites as staging areas for terrorist attacks on commercial
passenger jets and the American homeland.
And so the war began and the question
remains what is next?
First... almost every military person
either serving or retired who has commented on the President's strategy has
stated that ground troops are necessary to achieve the degradation and
destruction of ISIS. Therefore how fast will we get to this stage and whose
boots will be on the ground?
Second...where are the other Muslim and
Arab nations in this fight? The President and Secretary of State Kerry have
done "yeoman's work" in getting Sunnis to fight other Sunnis but some big
regional actors are missing.
Where is Egypt and where is Turkey which
after all is a member of NATO? Turkey has been non-committal and reluctant to
engage ISIS which it has assisted in the past. Turkey also has the largest
standing army in the area but has said that its hesitancy was due to forty
Turkish nationals including the Turkish Consul General being held captive in
Mosul. They have now been released and the elusive and slippery Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan, an ally of the
Muslim Brotherhood, continues to dodge.
Egypt is the most important Arab state with 80
million people. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is unsure where this coalition
is heading. He does not want to see Persian or Shiite influence increase in the
Levant or the Magreb, nor does he wish to see the Muslim Brotherhood become a
major regional player more than it is now, since he has outlawed them in Egypt.
Both Egypt and Turkey are bell weathers for how this is going to turn
out.
Third...where is Iran, Assad and Hezbollah in this mix?
They have been allies since the revolt began and Assad deliberately let ISIS get
strong to attack the other less fanatical members of the Syrian Free Army.
Rumors abound that the administration has been secretly negotiating with the
Rouani government for assistance with ISIS who hates
Shiites as apostates and
executes them upon capture. The Iranians have publicly stated that they turned
down a deal with the U.S. which the U.S. said never happened. The great fear is
that there will be a trade off for Iranian ground troops giving Tehran nuclear
capability for "peaceful purposes".and thereby leaving Israel and the coalition
in the lurch. Or perhaps this is the Byzantine chess game that the west must
play to rid the planet of a scourge from
Hell.
If the Iranian scenario should be realized then the
probability of a Shia-Sunni sectarian war will be ratcheted up immeasurably.
Likewise an Apocalyptic conflict between Israel and Iran and whoever else would
be almost inevitable.
Assad is yet another dilemma. The most cohesive army in the
field buoyed by Hezbollah and the IRGC or the Pasdaran belongs to him along with
chemical WMDs he didn't give up. Obama gave his government a heads up before
the attacks began which made Russia incensed because permission wasn't
requested. The Assad government nevertheless merely said they were for the
attacks. Where this is going no one knows but you can be sure that in part
Assad strange and under reported role as protectors of Christians and other
minorities will surface in an attempt by one party or the other to rehabilitate
his image. Watch "TYRANT" next season to see the end
result.
Fourth...what will be the ISIS and al-Qaeda responses to
this war? Will we see a flurry of savage beheadings or worse? Will ISIS
follow the example of Hamas as some are already suggesting, and hide amongst the
civilian population making "collateral damage" morally unacceptable? Will we
see vicious terrorist attacks both planned and of the "Lone Wolf" type at home
and abroad? Will we see WMD attacks in our cities? Or will we see all of the
above?
Fifth...what will be the role of Europe and the western
democracies in fighting ISIS? France and Australia seem committed but everyone
else is mumbling. This is an existential threat to them in particular or are
they cowed by the non assimilated growing Muslim enclaves they have allowed to
take root in their countries?
Sixth...what will the 800 pound bear and dragon
do about this fight? Both
Russia and China have radical Muslim problems of their own but undermining the
U.S. in the eyes of the Islamic world or the world in general may be too much of
an enticement for them to pass up. Russia is enlarging its Black Sea Fleet and
China is building a blue water navy to challenge the U.S. in the western
Pacific. Both make bellicose actions towards the U.S. or its allies. They may
think that this will tie down America for a generation and they will fill the
vacuum left behind.
In the coming days, weeks and months the answers to these
questions will become clear. We will see if Europe and the rest of the West
will step up and shoulder their moral responsibility. This is the President's
"neo-con" moment. His actions are supported more passionately by conservatives
than by progressives. War, after all is bad for the
climate.
This is a man who did not want to return to the region in
war but instead in peace but the fate of the civilized world now hangs in the
balance. For our part we all have to move past our emotional and ideological
battlements and unite as we did during WWII. This war after all has the same
clarity as that one. ISIS is the stuff of a Stephen King nightmare. Good has
never been more clear and evil has never been more
vivid.
The future will be time enough when reasoned criticism will
be appropriate. Now is not that time. Americans are in harm's way and the
nation must rally to them and the only Commander-in-Chief we all have.
ERLANDSSON
BROADCAST PRIOR TO THE PRESIDENT'S UN
SPEECH
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